On Sunday January 10, the Chicago Bears lost their wild card playoff game to the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome 21-9. The Bears, in the words of Bill Parcells, were what their record said they were. A team that started the season 5-1 and then limped to the finish line with an 8-8 record, was simply no match for the 12-4 Saints. In my mind, the Saints dominance can be summed up by one major statistic in this game. New Orleans possessed the football for 38 minutes and 58 seconds in this game, nearly double the time of possession for the Bears (who had the ball for a measly 21 minutes and 2 seconds). The Bears had only 11 first downs the entire game. Let’s dive into the specifics of this Bears loss.
The Bears played well defensively in the first half. The one hiccup they had was on the Saints second drive of the game in the first quarter. On that drive, Saints quarterback Drew Brees hit receiver Michael Thomas on an 11-yard touchdown pass. Curiously, as noted by broadcaster Tony Romo, the Bears were playing zone coverage on the play. It is a bit odd given the fact that the Saints were in the red zone, and one would think that with a shrinking field, physical man coverage would be the best option. At any rate, Chicago stopped New Orleans on five of their six drives in the first half, forcing three punts. The Bears had missed opportunities offensively in the first half. For example, late in the first quarter, quarterback Mitch Trubisky hit receiver Javon Wims on a 28-yard pass. On the following play, the Bears had the ball at the Saints 40 yard line. The Bears then ran a reverse, with Trubisky throwing to Wims in the end zone. Wims had separation, but the ball went through his hands, costing the Bears six points. In the second quarter, Bears safety Tashaun Gipson sacked Saints quarterback Taysom Hill, forcing a fumble that was recovered by Bears defensive tackle John Jenkins. Chicago’s offense had a golden opportunity, taking over at the Saints 24 yard line. The Bears were unable to capitalize, and had to settle for a field goal, cutting the Saints lead to 7-3. Bears coach Matt Nagy coached very conservatively at the end of the first half. With 1 minute 49 seconds left in the second quarter, the Bears had the ball at their own 18 yard line with two timeouts left. Instead of trying to get in field goal position, the Bears ran the ball three times, and punted before the first half ran out.
Down 7-3 in the third quarter, the Bears stopped the Saints on third down at the Bears 13 yard line. The Saints were lined up to attempt a fourth down conversion on a 4th and 3. Before the play, however, safety Eddie Jackson jumped into the neutral zone, giving the Saints enough yardage for a first down. Two plays later, Drew Brees hit running back Latavius Murray for a 6-yard touchdown. In the fourth quarter, down 14-3, the Bears defense yielded 59 yards to the Saints. On a 2nd and goal at the Bears 5 yard line, Bears superstar Khalil Mack sacked Brees, resulting in a 14-yard loss. However, a defensive holding negated the sack, giving the Saints more goal-to-go opportunities. The drive ended with Saints running back Alvin Kamara scoring a 3-yard rushing touchdown, giving the Saints a decisive 21-3 lead. Aside from the Bears defensive struggles in the second half, the Bears offense throughout the game struggled mightily. The Bears were a woeful 1-10 on third down, which was a huge factor in the aforementioned time of possession advantage for the Saints. As a whole, the Bears totaled 239 yards on the day, 99 of which came on the final drive with the game having long been decided (the Bears concluded the drive with a 19-yard touchdown pass from Trubisky to tight end Jimmy Graham as time expired).
In the aftermath of this loss, the Bears future is cloudy. This game notwithstanding, the Bears defense has been terrific over the past few seasons, and stars such as linebacker Khalil Mack, linebacker Roquan Smith, cornerback Kyle Fuller, and safety Eddie Jackson are all under contract for next season. Offensively, the Bears will likely have running back David Montgomery, one of the best running backs in the league. However, the Bears have some key free agents and limited funds to operate as far as the salary cap (according to Spotrac, the Bears as of today are over the salary cap for next season). A major free agent for the Bears is receiver Allen Robinson. Robinson caught 102 passes this season and is one of the elite receivers in the NFL. His production and the opportunities he opens up for other receivers would be extremely difficult to replicate. The major question for the Bears is at quarterback. Mitch Trubisky will be a free agent in March, after the Bears declined his 2021 option last spring. The 3rd overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, Trubisky has had a roller coaster four years in Chicago. He made the Pro Bowl in 2018, but regressed in 2019. He lost his starting job early this season to Nick Foles, before returning to the starting role after a Foles injury. He played well down the stretch, helping lead the Bears to the playoffs. The Bears could re-sign Trubisky, who would give them continuity, and a player who probably won’t require a long term commitment (given how inconsistent he has been thus far). The Bears have the 20th pick in the draft, which likely puts them out of reach for the top quarterbacks. The free agent market for external quarterbacks isn’t very exciting (this is assuming Dak Prescott and Philip Rivers don’t leave their respective teams). Quarterbacks such as Jimmy Garoppolo and Teddy Bridgewater are solid starting quarterbacks who could be trade candidates (the 49ers can save 23 million against the salary cap by moving Garoppolo, and the Panthers have the 8th pick in the draft). Whatever direction the Bears go at quarterback, they need to make the right decision, or else coach Matt Nagy and/or general manager Ryan Pace could be out in 2022.
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