The rivalry is renewed Sunday in Arlington, as the 3rd seeded Dallas Cowboys welcome the 6th seeded San Francisco 49ers to town for a nostalgic playoff matchup. This definitely isn’t the 1990s anymore, but one of the most historic rivalries in the sport will take center stage once again for the first time since the 1994 NFC Championship game. When the matchups were determined in week 18, many Cowboys fans were relieved over not having to face the Cardinals or the Rams during Super Wild Card weekend. However, this will be no cakewalk for the Cowboys either as the 49ers do match up fairly well against Dallas. Here is what to expect for Sunday’s matchup.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers (10-7 overall, 7-5 conference) were able to clinch this 6th seed with a grueling overtime victory against the Los Angeles Rams in week 18. The 49ers had to dig deep for that win, as it required a late 4th quarter comeback and an eventual overtime period to get the job done. The talent the 49ers have on display can be seen on both sides of the ball, with names such as Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and others.
The key to start with is the quarterback. Garoppolo is the man that will make this 49ers offense tick and has done so for most of the season. Garoppolo holds a 75.5 grade from PFF’s ranking system, and when doing a deep dive into his advanced metrics, Garoppolo comes off way better than what his statistics may imply. Garoppolo holds a 103.0 passer rating in a clean pocket, and is still pretty decent under pressure with an 83.9 rating. Dallas likes to bring the heat, and Garoppolo will be under some pressure from the likes of Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Randy Gregory. However, what also stands out is the offensive approach San Francisco likes to roll with. When calculating the run vs. pass percentages, San Francisco runs the ball at a 45.4% clip vs. a 54.6% passing clip. A very balanced approach from San Francisco helps keep opposing defenses a bit on their heels. When Garoppolo does drop back, expect a lot of George Kittle in this game. Kittle goes up against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 6 touchdowns this year to the tight end position. He should be involved early and often for this 49ers passing attack.
If there is an offensive strength with this 49ers team, it lies within their rushing attack. Head coach Kyle Shanahan loves to window dress designed runs, and he has done so very effectively with the usage of Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell. Mitchell has come out of nowhere to be the de facto number one running back for the 49ers this year, and when he has played he has been very effective. He charts out as 18th out of 61 qualified running backs, according to PFF, with a grade of 76.1. He finished 8th in the NFL this year in total rushing yards, and totaled more than 100 yards rushing in 5 of 11 games he played in this year. Over his last 5 contests that he has played, Mitchell has received at least 20 carries in each of those 5 starts. It is fair to expect Mitchell to get somewhere in that 18-20 carry mark again, depending on game script. Samuel comes in as the swiss army knife for Shanahan and the 49ers, and can do it all player for this team. Shanahan knows that he has to get his most explosive player the ball, and that is Samuel in a nutshell. During this second half of the season, Samuel has been utilized as both a receiver and as a running back on designed plays. Samuel during this time has averaged at least 10 total touches a game, with impact being made in both offensive aspects. The 49ers know they have to get Samuel the ball, and expect that often versus Dallas.
The 49ers defensive strength is across their defensive line, with Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead some of the keys to give the Cowboys fits. This season for San Francisco Bosa has been a force to be reckoned with, racking up 15.5 sacks, tied for 4th in the league. Bosa also is graded as one of the top 10 edge defenders in the NFL, according to PFF. The Dallas offensive line, which has been the most penalized offensive line in football this year, should see plenty of Bosa in this game. It is imperative for Dallas to stop Bosa in any way they can, whether it comes from rubs or straight double teams. Armstead himself has been quite impressive this year, as he alongside teammate D.J. Jones are top 20 graded interior defenders by PFF this season. The Cowboys cannot count out linebacker Fred Warner either, one of the best run stuffing and cover linebackers in the game today.
Dallas calls a pass play on 62.6% of their offensive snaps. This should see Bosa and Armstead getting plenty of opportunity to put some licks in on Dak Prescott in this game. If San Francisco’s secondary stands a chance to hold up against Dallas, they are going to need help from the front seven to get to Prescott. The San Francisco secondary grades out as a middle of the road unit, and San Francisco has not faced a better offense this year with this much all-around firepower like Dallas has, when it is on. Yes, that also includes the Cardinals and Rams.
Dallas Cowboys
As Cowboys (12-5 overall, 10-2 conference) head coach Mike McCarthy said after the Cowboys’ win versus the Eagles in week 18, “our season starts right now”. He is right, this is what Dallas has prepared for all season long. Most Cowboys fans did not want to get the Rams or the Cardinals in round 1, and their long shot prayers were answered with losses by both teams in week 18. To be very clear, the 49ers are no pushovers. They are not far off from being as good as both the Cardinals and Rams, while also matching up quite well with Dallas.
Where Dallas will have to hang their hats in this game is on their offense. This is what the team is simply built around, their ability to push the ball downfield at will. Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Cedric Wilson, Dalton Schultz. Those are the names that will be responsible for Dallas either making it out of this game or going home early once again.
Prescott’s time to shine is right now. In three playoff starts, he is 1-2, but has played well in each 3 starts. That was all before he was signed as the Cowboys $40 million man. Prescott was signed to that massive contract to win playoff games, and nothing else. This is what the success or failure of this contract will be based off of, can Prescott do what Tony Romo could not do and get Dallas to a NFC Championship game, let alone a Super Bowl.
This year, Prescott has been solid for Dallas. Breaking the Cowboys record for most touchdowns in a season included, Prescott has gotten Dallas to this spot. 12 wins is no slouch, that is the result of great work from all aspects of this Cowboys team. When analyzing their 2 losses within the NFC this year, they have come from Tom Brady (Buccaneers) and Kyler Murray (Cardinals), who are both in the playoffs respectively.
The biggest question mark for this Cowboys offense is the health of running back Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott has been hampered with a bum knee for most of the season now, and that has completely impacted his on-field ability. Despite posting 1,000 rushing yards, it hasn’t been the prettiest ride for Elliott. The Cowboys running back has not had a 100 yard rushing day since week 5 versus the Giants, and has seen his overall workload cut down due to the emergence of Tony Pollard, who arguably has been the better of the running backs in Dallas. The Cowboys have employed much of a run-by-committee approach, which has eased some of the work off of Zeke, and the run game will be very important for Dallas given the strength of the 49ers defensive line.
Defensively, Dallas are as loaded as they have been in quite some time. Micah Parsons, PFF’s number 1 graded linebacker, DeMarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, and Trevon Diggs, the standouts of this unit, will have to produce in a big way. Parsons has been a matchup nightmare for opposing teams, as defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has moved Parsons all around the defense this year to best utilize his vast skill set. The results have only made Parsons the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year in the league, and perhaps overall Defensive Player of the Year. Trevon Diggs has had a standout season all on his own, tying Everson Walls’ Cowboys record for most interceptions in a season with 10. Diggs’ critics will point to his very boom or bust style in coverage, but when he possesses such elite ball skills, Dallas will take the plays against him for the plays he makes for them. Diggs projects to draw Deebo Samuel in coverage, a matchup that could decide the outcome of this game. Samuel is one of the very best yards after catch (YAC) receivers in the game. Shutting him down as best as possible is going to be key for Dallas.
Prediction: Dallas 31 San Francisco 27
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