We have saved the juicier entries for the last two. Tomorrow, my one and only official mock draft will be dropping exclusively on Talking Points Sports as our last entry for The Countdown. Today, we get bold. The predictions we go through will span the entire draft. We aren’t going to limit ourselves to just the first round, even though the first round will be covered exclusively tomorrow.
I tried to cover specific players that are outside-the-box. I also wanted to cover takes that maybe you won’t see elsewhere, in an effort to be different, for all of you beautiful people. Today’s list is dedicated to opening some eyes with some bold, bold predictions.
One.
10. Trey McBride Falls Out of Round 2
I like Colorado State tight end Trey McBride a lot, and think he will be a success at the NFL level given his size, athleticism, safe hands, and playmaking ability. It is a shame however that McBride simply isn’t a revolutionary prospect at the tight end position like we saw with Kyle Pitts a year ago when he was taken in the top-5.
NFL teams simply do not see value in spending a high pick on a tight end unless the prospect is a white whale level talent. While McBride had a historic season a year ago for the Rams, he will fall victim to the position bias and fall outside the top-64 picks. I would love to see him in Cincinnati catching passes from Joe Burrow, but sadly it looks like that won’t happen.
9. Kayvon Thibodeaux Falls Out of the Top-5
Time to get real bold. While you will see tomorrow that I have Thibodeux in the top-5, I am going to take a stab at this one and say Thibodeaux takes a bit of a fall. I am not the biggest fan of Thibodeaux, so maybe call me a bit bias, but I could legitimately see this happening. It would take chaos in the top-5, but it could.
Say Jacksonville makes their pick at 1, and then both the Lions and Texans were to trade out to quarterback-needy teams, would the Jets still take Thibodeaux over whomever is left out of Travon Walker or Aidan Hutchinson? What about the Giants at five, who clearly have needs at all offensive line positions. Would they take Thibodeaux over Ikem Ekwonu or Evan Neal? I doubt it.
It is also possible that Thibodeaux could just fall. We have seen this in the past where prospects are locked into one spot and then tumble out during round 1.
8. The First Running Back is Selected on Day 2
It is the state of the running back position in the National Football League. Teams just do not value running backs like they used to, unless we are talking about a generational running back prospect. For as good as Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III are, they aren’t generational.
The Houston Texans have a need for a running back at 37th overall. Rex Burkhead, Marlon Mack, and Royce Freeman are penciled in atop the Texans running back depth chart right now. I would bet my reputation that it doesn’t stay that way. The Texans could take either Hall or Walker III to be the starter right away, and become the focal points of the Texans offense to take pressure off of incumbent starting quarterback Davis Mills.
7. The Packers Double Up on Wide Receivers
Worst kept secret in the world: The Packers need wide receivers. You may have heard me mention that a time or two before. The Packers have two first round selections, 22 and 28, and how bold is it to say the Packers double up and help out Aaron Rodgers?
Chris Olave fits like a glove with what Green Bay likes in a receiver, but how about Treylon Burks? Burks would give Rodgers and the Packers something that they haven’t had for quite some time, a big-bodied slot receiver that will kill defenders on slant routes and has unreal yards-after-catch ability. If you want to keep Rodgers happy, the Packers should give him two new toys to play with.
6. Four Trades Occur in Round 1
Everyone’s favorite thing to discuss, who trades up and who trades down. A tale as old as time, isn’t it? In my estimation, there are several spots in this draft that strike me as real opportunities to trade up. They are as follows:
– 3rd overall (Houston Texans)
– 4th overall (New York Jets)
– 6th overall (Carolina Panthers)
– 7th overall (New York Giants)
– 9th overall (Seattle Seahawks)
– 12th overall (Minnesota Vikings)
Teams that are below 12th overall that have real ammunition to trade up:
– Philadelphia Eagles (2 1st round picks)
– New Orleans Saints (2 1st round picks)
– Green Bay Packers (2 1st round picks)
– Kansas City Chiefs (2 1st round picks)
Because of the uncertainty surrounding a lot of these prospects in this class, we could see teams move all around the board in round 1. Keep an eye out on Kansas City with their 12 picks in this draft. Sources tell me to go along with the abundance of picks, the Chiefs do not have a lot of first round grades on players. If they see someone they like, they will go and get them.
5. Nakobe Dean is the 33rd Overall Pick
The slight given to the former Georgia Bulldog is unfair. Is he undersized, yes he is but we have seen smaller guys succeed before. What Dean doesn’t have in size he makes up for with superb tackling technique and leadership traits every coaching staff dreams of having in their locker rooms. Leadership cannot be taught, and Dean was the leader of the best all-around defensive unit in the country a year ago for the Bulldogs.
Dean would walk into Jacksonville’s new-look defense and be a day-one starter. He would get the opportunity to learn on the job, and be the foundation for what HC Doug Pederson hopes will be an improved unit in 2022.
4. Sam Howell is Selected in Round 3
I will admit this is a bold one, but one I could also see happening. Howell could not have had a worse season in 2021 for his draft stock, as a consensus top-5 pick before the season is now being discussed on day two at best.
I do expect a team in need of a possible long-term answer at the quarterback position to try and trade up for Howell in round 2. However, we have seen players that maybe could have gone in round 1 be there in round 2. Could those players take some of the shine off of Howell and leave him in a free fall until round 3? It is quite possible.
3. Dallas Does Not Draft a Receiver Until Round 3
The Cowboys will have opportunities to take a receiver, but in the end the needs on defense and on the offensive line are way more pressing. Defensively, Dallas could do with a linebacker, edge rusher, and anybody in the secondary really. Offensively, they need help in the interior of that offensive line.
Sources tell me Dallas has 9 potential options on their list for round 1. Receivers are on that list, yet I feel it is extremely unlikely Dallas goes that route. If they let the board play itself out, Dallas will get their hands on a better prospect in other areas of need than receiver.
Receiver is also quite deep this year. Dallas could find themselves a real contributor in round 3, with the likes of Khalil Shakir, Isaiah Weston, Makai Polk, and David Bell all potentially available at 88 overall.
2. The Saints Trade Up… But Not for a Quarterback
My goodness would this generate some buzz. After all the Saints have done, the maneuvering and positioning, to trade up for your next franchise quarterback and they do it for an offensive lineman. Now that would be a talking point, wouldn’t it.
Sources tell me the Saints believe they can compete with Jameis Winston. The returning Michael Thomas will surely help things offensively, and getting Thomas a weapon next to him could really help open things up on offense. The Saints however need a replacement for Terron Armstead, who left New Orleans for South Beach on a long-term contract with the Miami Dolphins. The thinking in New Orleans is getting that replacement could be more beneficial now than a quarterback would. If the Saints feel they are ready to compete this year, that is the move a competing team would do.
1. Ikem Ekwonu is Selected 1st Overall
The biggest surprise of the bunch, and here it is. For months, we have talked about Aidan Hutchinson going to Jacksonville. For the last few days, we have talked about Travon Walker going first to Jacksonville. We have discussed the disconnect in the front office for the Jaguars, but what if it is all a smoke screen to cover up who they really intend to select. Step up, Ickey Ekwonu.
HC Doug Pederson has made it clear that his, and the Jaguars, priority this offseason was to surround Trevor Lawrence with talent. They have done that, with Cam Robinson returning on the franchise tag, Brandon Scherff signing a multi-year deal, Christian Kirk arriving as one of the highest paid receivers in football, and Evan Engram on a one-year agreement. What is a better way to help your young passer even more? Get him another monster for the trenches.
Ekwonu just makes the most sense to me. Travon Walker is not a game-changer yet on defense, despite the athletic traits. You know what you will get with Aidan Hutchinson, yet the Jags can improve defensively later in the draft. There are two special offensive lineman in this draft, and either one makes sense for Jacksonville. If the Jags are smart about this, they select Ekwonu and continue to do what they have set out to do all offseason long.
