(*This article is written based on standard Non-PPR scoring)
Tight end is a very tricky position to draft in fantasy football. You have a clear and obvious number one, a clear next two and three to round out the top three, and then a fairly large dropoff. Knowing when and where to fill your tight end spot is critical and could be the difference between winning and losing your league.
Tier 1
This is a one-man tier, and it consists of Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce is a first round pick in every sized league in 2021, and for good reason. Kelce has had over 1,000 receiving yards every year for the last five seasons. Kelce is the first tight end in league history to have five seasons of over 1,000 receiving yards, and he has done it consecutively. Over those five seasons, he has been the number one tight end in fantasy scoring with the exception of 2017, when he finished as the number two tight end just 7.8 points behind Rob Gronkowski. Kelce is about as big of a lock to produce at any position in fantasy, and given how much better he is than everyone else, he is worth a late first round pick.
Tier 2
Tier two features Raiders tight end Darren Waller and 49ers tight end George Kittle. Waller was dominant last season in his second year with the Raiders, catching 107 balls for 1,196 yards and found the endzone nine times. Waller was also tied with Travis Kelce for the most targets among tight ends last season with 145. Kittle, on the other hand, missed half of the 2020 season with a broken foot and an MCL sprain. It was a lost year for Kittle, but in 2018 Kittle was tight end two, and in 2019 he was tight end three in overall scoring. If he can stay healthy, he should return back to that level of production, especially in what should be improved quarterback play from 2020 with either Jimmy Garapollo or Trey Lance under center. Waller is currently going as tight end two in ADP (ESPN.com) and 24th overall. Kittle is the third tight end off the board and going 26th overall. I like both of these players a lot, but I would wait until the fourth round to snag one instead of the middle of the third in 10-team leagues, and prefer Waller slightly over Kittle if both are there around the middle of the fourth round.
Tier 3
In this third tier, I have four players and this is most likely where I will be looking to fill my tight end position. The four players in the third tier are T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, Robert Tonyan, and Kyle Pitts (this is the order I have them rankings-wise 4-7). Their current ADP’s range from the middle of round five to the middle of round nine. Hockenson is going as tight end six behind Andrews and Pitts, who are going four and five respectively in ADP, while Tonyan is going as tight end nine. If Hockenson falls to the seventh round (currently going in the sixth) I would be all in. He is the number one passing option on a Lions team that will be playing catchup all year long and would be great at that price point. The guy that I am targeting in this tier and targeting overall in drafts is Tonyan simply because of where he is being drafted. Tonyan is currently going at pick 86, which is too low, while Hockensons is going 30 spots higher at 56. Last year Tonyan was tight end three behind Kelce and Waller, and while I do not think he finishes that high this year, I think he can definitely be a top-five guy at the position. He should be one of the top options in the passing game for Green Bay and will have the 2020 MVP throwing him the ball. I would look to reach for him a round early to assure I can get him because he should have another great season.
The other two players in this tier I will not be drafting at their current ADP or even around it. Andrews had a great 2019 and an okay 2020 and should be the lead pass catcher for the Ravens again this season. The only problem is the Ravens are so run-heavy that Andrews will not see enough looks to warrant a fifth-round selection of him. Kyle Pitts is an insane athlete out of Florida and deserved every bit of going fourth overall this past April to the Falcons, but rookie tight ends never produce good fantasy numbers in their first season in the league. Since 2000 only five rookie tight ends have finished inside the top-10 in fantasy scoring, and only three inside the top five. While Pitts is one of the most athletic and most talented tight ends to ever come out of the draft, I would temper expectations on him and would not take him at his current ADP of 49th overall.
Tier 4
At this point in the draft, you are stocking your bench for depth before drafting a tight end. The players in this tier are Logan Thomas, Mike Gesicki, and Jonnu Smith. Thomas is going as tight end seven, 66 overall, Gesicki at 11,102 overall, and Smith at 13, 123 overall. The gap between eight and nine is pretty big for me but not enough to take Thomas as high as he is currently going, especially with Tonyan going 20 picks later. Gesicki and Smith are both great picks where they are going in drafts, and would love either of them at that spot if you wait on the position. Gesicki will be one of the top options for the Dolphins in Tua Tagovailoa’s second season. Tagovailoa struggled in his rookie campaign, and a lot of Gesicki’s production came with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, but if Tagovailoa can make a jump from year one to year two Gesicki will produce top-10 numbers. Smith would be talked about as a top-five guy at the position if it weren’t for the Patriots also signing Hunter Henry this past offseason, but they did, and that is why Smith is going where he is going. Another reason for Smith going in the 13th round is who the Patriots currently have slated to start the season at quarterback, Cam Newton. Newton was awful last year and has not shown anything to make you think he will turn it around in 2021. The question on rookie Mac Jones starting at quarterback for New England is not if but when, and when that happens Smith should be a weekly top-10 play. Another thing to remember is Hunter Henry’s durability. Henry has never played all 16 games in a season and if he misses any time it will be the Jonnu Smith show in New England.
Tier 5
This is where really waiting on tight end comes into play or if you want to carry multiple tight ends on your roster. The guys in this tier are Rob Gronkowski, Dallas Goedert, and Austin Hooper. Based on where they are going, I like all of them at their ADP. Gronkowski is not what he once was, but he will catch a lot of balls in the painted part of the field from his buddy Tom Brady and is a good value in the 13th round. Goedert has overtaken Zach Ertz as the top tight end in the Eagles offense and should be one of the top options in the passing game to go with rookie Devonta Smith and second-year man Jalen Reagor. And Hooper, who finished as tight end four on a points per game basis in 2019 with the Falcons which earned him a big deal with the Browns in the 2020 offseason should be better than his 22nd finish at the position last season. While Hooper was underwhelming last year he has all the talent in the world and had a full offseason to get more chemistry with Baker Mayfield in the Browns offense, making him a perfect late-round flier to pair with another tight end.
If you can get one of the top three guys for the right price, do it, but grabbing Robert Tonyan in the eighth or ninth round or Hockenson in the seventh is what I will be trying to do in drafts. Building depth at running back and wide receiver early on is critical, and both Tonyan and Hockenson can be worth every penny at the right price while also building a solid bench with a lot of depth.
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