Ah, the age-old question. The question that keeps NFL front offices awake at night trying to find the next leader of their franchise.
For some, this process can take decades to get right. Just ask the Dolphins, Jets, Browns, Jaguars, Broncos, Bears, and Buccaneers. None of whom have developed a young quarterback successfully in the 21st century. It is no coincidence that only two of these teams have won a Super Bowl in that timeframe, the Broncos and Bucs, who added two of the best quarterbacks of all time late in their careers in Peyton Manning and Tom Brady to put them over the top.
In order to determine how quarterbacks have developed in the modern NFL, it would be best to examine the situations these players were surrounded by in their first couple of years, including Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, wide receiver, and offensive line. By examining each quarterback’s supporting cast, we can see which factors impacted quarterbacks to the greatest extent. For the purpose of not making snap judgements on players careers and getting a fuller evaluation, I will only be looking at quarterbacks that are at, or approaching their second contracts, as the jury is still out on the future careers of quarterbacks drafted more recently. Additionally, I am only going to be looking at quarterbacks drafted in round one. While there are a number of mid and late round success stories at QB in the NFL, if a team thinks they are drafting their future signal caller they tend to do so very early in the draft.
2016
Jared Goff- This pick honestly did not turn out too badly for the Rams. Goff may have just not had the talent that you would hope for out of a number one pick, but he still led them to a Super Bowl run in 2018. At the time he was drafted, Goff did not have much help, with the notoriously average Jeff Fisher as the head coach, Rob Boras, who is now the tight end coach for the Buffalo Bills as OC, and Tavon Austin as his number one receiver. The offensive line was not too bad with Rodger Saffold and Rob Havenstein. The Rams supported Goff well by later hiring Sean McVay, and then adding Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Cooper Kupp at receiver.
Carson Wentz– The number two pick in this draft also had his team in the Super Bowl in just his second year, only he was injured for it. Instead, Nick Foles led the Eagles to an improbable win over the Patriots. The Wentz Philadelphia situation is difficult to assess, as he was given a solid support coaching staff with Doug Pederson and Frank Reich as OC, with a fantastic veteran offensive line including Jason Kelce, Jason Peters, Brandon Brooks, and Lane Johnson. His receivers were suspect, but the addition of Alshon Jeffery turned out to be huge alongside the great tight end Zach Ertz. Overall, the Eagles did a pretty good job supporting Wentz as evidenced by their super bowl win, and it is difficult to understand where it all went wrong after Wentz was an MVP candidate with the Birds.
Paxton Lynch– Lynch is essentially a throwaway case, as he never looked like he had the makings of an NFL quarterback. The Broncos had a solid offensive line with Russell Okung holding down the blindside and the late Demariyus Thomas alongside Emmanuel Sanders at wide receiver. It was not an ideal situation for Lynch with head coach Gary Kubiak being fired after his rookie season, but it never really seemed as though Lynch would have blossomed anyway.
2017
Mitch Trubisky– Another team that upended their young quarterback’s development with a coaching change after year one, the Bears made the change from John Fox to Matt Nagy and the early returns looked promising with a 12-4 record in 2018. The honeymoon did not last long though and as the Bears went downhill, so did Trubisky’s career. Trubisky had a solid number one receiver in Allen Robinson, and not much to work with outside of that. A below average offensive line was just one of many issues that derailed any career that the former North Carolina quarterback might have had.
Patrick Mahomes– This is the blueprint. Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid leading the team with Eric Bieniemy at OC, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce as the main weapons, an offensive line including Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, and Mitch Morse, and veteran Alex Smith showing Mahomes the ropes. Obviously, Mahomes is laughably talented and the Chiefs scouting department deserves credit for seeing that, but surely his career would not have gotten off to this absurd of a start if the Chiefs did not provide him with a perfect situation. Speaking of blueprints, are the 49ers not trying to do the exact same thing with Trey Lance? Having him sit behind a veteran signal caller in his first year? Check. Well-respected coach already there? Check. Star wide receiver and tight end? Check. Offensive line? Yup. I am no scout, but the 49ers seem to be doing everything right to help Lance succeed, so watch out for him in 2022.
Deshaun Watson– Deshaun really led the Texans to back-to-back AFC South championships in spite of the Texans organization rather than because of it. The Texans organization was dysfunctional, and Head Coach Bill O’Brien was the face of that. Obviously, having All-Pro wide receiver Deandre Hopkins helped a lot, and the later additions of Will Fuller and Laremy Tunsil did as well, but still the Texans did not do enough for Watson. Of course, it has since come out that Watson is facing dozens of sexual harassment cases, so maybe he was not a great leader for the team either.
2018
Baker Mayfield– Baker Mayfield is a bit difficult to assess. In his first three years, he had three different head coaches, and it finally looked like Kevin Stefanski would be the one to turn their franchise around after he led them to a playoff victory in 2020. Having Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. at receiver certainly did not hurt, especially with a dominant offensive line including Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller. This season was thrown off by a lingering shoulder injury with Mayfield, so 2022 will be a big test to see Mayfield’s future. Overall, it is difficult to fault the Browns, as they have given the former Heisman winner a chance to thrive.
Sam Darnold– The Jets are the perfect example of how to ruin a young quarterback. They fired their head coach Todd Bowles after Darnold’s rookie year, then replaced him with the incompetent Adam Gase. Gase had his friend Dowell Loggains in charge of the offense, who seemed to cede full control to Gase. At wide receiver, they had nothing short of the deep-threat only Robby Anderson and slot receiver Jamison Crowder. Their offensive line consisted of a group of rag-tag veterans, with Kelvin Beachum being the most notable of the bunch. This is not to say that Darnold would have been an amazing NFL quarterback if drafted by another team, but that will forever be a question left to ponder due to the Jets’ incompetence.
Josh Allen– Josh Allen is a bonafide star, which is not something anyone would have expected to have been said after his dreadful rookie year. The Bills had Sean McDermott in place at Head Coach and Brian Daboll as OC, and it would have been easy for the organization to be impatient and throw them under the bus to try to salvage Allen’s development. Instead, they stuck with the plan, added Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Dawson Knox to give him weapons, and beefed up his offensive line with the additions of Darryl Williams, Mitch Morse, and Jon Feliciano. The Bills may have not had the perfect situation for Allen when he initially came into the building, but their diligence since then in giving him the team he would need has proved to be extremely fruitful.
Josh Rosen– Rosen really never was given a chance by the Arizona Cardinals, although after a rookie of the year season by Kyler Murray, the Cardinals looked to have made the right move cutting their losses early. Rosen had the legendary Larry Fitzgerald at his disposal but struggled mightily in his rookie year. With Steve Wilks as Head Coach and no offensive line to speak of, Rosen’s career as a starter was over before it even started.
Lamar Jackson– Jackson was an absolute star in college at Louisville, taking home the Heisman trophy his sophomore year. The Baltimore Ravens brought him into a pretty good situation with well-respected John Harbaugh as HC and Greg Roman at OC. His receivers were not the best, but drafting two tight ends alongside Jackson in Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst certainly helped a lot. Moreover, as primarily a running quarterback, it was imperative that the Ravens had a great offensive line, which anyone would say Orlando Brown, Ronnie Stanley, and Marshal Yanda accomplished. The Ravens have since added Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman with early draft picks trying to give Jackson everything he needs to continue his development as a passer.
In what should be a surprise to no one, the two most successful quarterbacks in the NFL from these three draft classes, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, have the same coach that they came into the league with. Stability should never be understated in any team sport, especially for a quarterback when playbook’s can be so challenging and difficult to adjust to. Additionally, both of their teams gave them star weapons to work with. The third best quarterback from the 2016-2018 classes, Lamar Jackson, has succeeded on his ridiculous talent mostly, as the Ravens have struggled to give him a reliable number one receiver, though stud tight end Mark Andrews has proven to be very quarterback-friendly. However, like Mahomes and Allen, he has had the same head coach since coming into the league in addition to a very solid offensive line. So, in conclusion, it seems as though the biggest factors in young quarterback’s development are:
- Stability
- Weapons
- Offensive Line
If a team can provide their drafted quarterback with these three things, there is no excuse for that player to not develop into a quality NFL QB. Teams that have recently drafted quarterbacks high in the draft, namely the Jets, Jaguars, Bears, and Dolphins must stick to this template to give their young signal-callers a chance to take the next step in their development.
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