The NHL Expansion Draft is still months away (July 21), but that doesn’t stop the speculation into who teams will protect, and who teams will lose. Fortunately for Detroit, they will most likely be able to protect their most valuable assets and core pieces, and the loss will be minimal. Another plus is that the Red Wings don’t have any player with a No-Move Clause that would require protection; Fran Nielsen’s NMC has shifted to a No-Trade Clause and thus he can be exposed, unliked in 2017.
Regarding the rules to the Expansion Draft, they will be the same as the draft for the Vegas Golden Knights. There are two options for protected players: protecting seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie, or protecting eight skaters and one goalie. Teams with four defensemen that they are looking to protect will likely opt for the eight skaters, barring a deal made with Seattle to take a specific player. Detroit will likely use the seven forwards, three defensemen option.
In terms of exposure requirements, two forwards under contract must be left unprotected who have either played more than 27 games in 2020-21 or played more than 54 games over the course of 2019-20 through 2020-21. The same exposure rule applies to defensemen, except only one defenseman needs to be exposed who meets these requirements. Finally, teams must also expose one goaltender who is either under contract through 2021-22 or an RFA in 2021.
So, with all that being said, who will the Red Wings protect? Let’s start with the forwards.
Locks: Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi, Jakub Vrana, Robby Fabbri, Michael Rasmussen
Exempt: Filip Zadina
The above forwards take up five spots and will no doubt be protected. Larkin is the captain of the team and arguably the group’s best forward. Bertuzzi, Vrana, and Fabbri are also important top-six wingers, and Rasmussen, now up with the club full time, will certainly be protected as a young up-and-coming center for Detroit. Zadina is exempt from the expansion draft as a player who has two or less full professional seasons under his belt.
The Toss Ups: Adam Erne, Vladislav Namestnikov, Richard Panik, Evgeny Svechnikov, Givani Smith
The remaining two forward spots are up for grabs, and there seems to be five players who the Red Wings could choose to use these spots on. The most likely option for one of the spots would be Adam Erne, whose recent hot streak has him with 11 goals in 43 games. It should also be noted that Erne will be an RFA this offseason, and if he’s not protected, Seattle can potentially sign him, as they have a window of time to sign any unprotected RFAs that are interested. If Erne does get protected, which is likely, that leaves a spot open for one of Namestnikov, Panik, Svechnikov, or Smith. Namestnikov and Panik, as two established NHLers, may be the favorites in this position. While Svechnikov and Smith have established themselves as fan favorites, and have done well in limited NHL time, there’s still the possibility that they may not become full time NHLers. Detroit has also waived Svechnikov multiple times this season, perhaps signaling their willingness to risk losing him.
When it comes to Namestnikov versus Panik, the Red Wings may expose Panik for the simple reason that his contract is both longer (expires in 2023 versus 2022) and has a bigger cap hit ($2.75 million to $2 million). Namestnikov also has slightly better point production (14 points in 43 games to Panik’s 9 points in 38 games) and can play both center and wing. For now, Namestnikov will slide into that last protected spot.
Exposed: Richard Panik, Evgeny Svechnikov, Givani Smith, Frans Nielsen
UFAs: Valtteri Filppula, Darren Helm, Luke Glendening, Bobby Ryan, Sam Gagner
Defensemen
When it comes to defensemen, Detroit will likely have to expose one of their older prospects. With only three spots available, it’s much tighter than the forward list.
The Locks: Filip Hronek
Hronek is the only lock on the back end, and there aren’t any current NHLers that are exempt. There’s no doubt that the Czech defender will be protected, as he is currently tied for the team lead in points (23 in 51) and leads the group with the most time on ice per game (23:30)
The Toss Ups: Troy Stetcher, Dennis Cholowski, Gustav Lindstrom
The big question for Detroit seems to be Cholowski versus Lindstrom. While the Red Wings could protect both and leave Stetcher exposed, he would certainly be taken by the Seattle Kraken as an established NHLer who could play in their top four. While Stetcher isn’t a guaranteed lock to be protected, he’s the most likely out of the three. When it comes to Cholowski versus Lindstrom, they represent two very different players. Cholowski is a smooth skater with offensive upside and the ability to effectively run a power play. He also already has 99 games of NHL experience. On the other hand, Lindstrom is a defense-first player who has just 24 games of NHL experience. Cholowski was Detroit’s first round pick in 2016, while Lindstrom was taken in the second round of the 2017 Draft. With Cholowski’s skating ability and offensive upside, however, he’ll get the slight edge here. He, like Stetcher, would likely be taken if exposed, especially for a team like Seattle looking to repeat Vegas’ first-year success and give talented but sheltered players bigger roles, hoping they’ll succeed. It’s certainly possible Lindstrom could be taken, however, probably less certain than Cholowski.
Exposed: Gustav Lindstrom, Danny DeKeyser, Christian Djoos
UFAs: Marc Staal, Alex Biega
Goaltenders
Finally, the goaltenders. This protection is much easier as Detroit only has one NHL goaltender signed into next season.
The Lock: Thomas Greiss
Exposed: Kaden Fulcher
UFAs: Jonathan Bernier, Calvin Pickard
Greiss is the only choice, as he and Fulcher are the only two goalies that meet the exposure requirements. Luckily for Detroit, Fucher, who is currently playing in their minor league system, can serve as the exposed netminder. Additionally, while Jonathan Bernier has hinted that he’d like to come back to Detroit as a free agent, the Red Wings will likely wait until after the expansion draft to sign him so they don’t have to worry about protecting him versus Greiss.
So, that officially leaves us with a protected list of:
Dylan Larkin
Tyler Bertuzzi
Jakub Vrana
Robby Fabbri
Michael Rasmussen
Adam Erne
Vladislav Namestnikov
Filip Hronek
Troy Stetcher
Dennis Cholowski
Thomas Greiss
And, top exposed players of:
Richard Panik
Evgeny Svechnikov
Givani Smith
Frans Nielsen
Danny DeKeyser
Gustav Lindstrom
Christian Djoos
Kaden Fulcher
Who would Seattle likely to take? Let’s start with who Seattle probably wouldn’t take, barring a need to hit the salary cap floor: Frans Nielsen and Danny DeKeyser. Both Nielsen and Dekeyser have high cap hits ($5.25 million for Nielsen, $5 million for DeKeyser), and while their contracts do expire in 2022, they don’t bring enough value to warrant an expansion draft selection. Additionally, both have been healthy scratched, and sent through waivers this season. Djoos is also unlikely to be taken; he’s been playing as a depth defenseman this season for the Red Wings and has been a healthy scratch since April 10th. He’s also played just 154 games in his five seasons and may not even be qualified by Detroit as an RFA. Fulcher, as a minor league goalie, also won’t be taken.
That leaves Seattle with four options: Richard Panik, Evgeny Svechnikov, Givani Smith, or Gustav Lindstrom. All present intriguing but different options and a lot of what Seattle does depends on the other players they take. In 2017, Detroit left decent depth players in Riley Sheahan, Luke Glendening, and Darren Helm exposed, along with (surprisingly) goaltender Petr Mrazek, someone many thought Vegas would take. The Golden Knights, however, chose to take Tomas Nosek, a borderline NHLer/prospect who had spent just 17 games in the NHL with the Red Wings. The pick worked out, as Nosek has now played over 200 games in Vegas and put up 65 points, but it was surprising nonetheless.
If Seattle wants a proven, veteran NHLer who can provide solid third-line play, they could go with Panik. If they want a reclamation project, they could go with Svechnikov, who may flourish in a new system and with more consistent playing time. If they want a fan favorite who will drop the gloves for a teammate and provide forechecking and physicality, they could go with Smith. Finally, if they want to take a chance and grab a young defender who could be a part of their blue line for years to come, they could nab Lindstrom. It’s all speculation for now, and who the Kraken pick will greatly depend on how they want to construct their roster, not just through the expansion draft, but also through trades and free agency. For now, though, Smith could be the most tempting option. When he’s played NHL games, he’s shown he belongs in the league. As a bruising, physical forward, he’ll certainly bring fans out, and help set the culture for the newest NHL team.
Seattle Claims: Givani Smith
For more NHL coverage, click here.
