NHL: A Tale of Two Rebuilds

There comes a time in the life cycle of every NHL team when a rebuild is necessary. Some teams are hesitant to admit as much, while others are open about their intentions to the public. Inevitable as the snap of Thanos’ finger, the NHL rebuild may be just as imminent.  

In today’s review of two separate cases of ‘The NHL Rebuild,’ Garrett Brown and Ed Birdsall will analyze the surprising, and seemingly streamlined rebuilds of both the Anaheim Ducks and the New York Rangers.

Expectations Pre-Rebuild

Garrett: While the Ducks weren’t as forthcoming regarding their rebuild, it was undeniably time to change the strategy that brought them three straight losing years following a decade of Pacific Division dominance. Last offseason, the front office finally started using the word “rebuild” in press conferences, and that is all the Ducks’ faithful needed to hear to know that changes were coming.

The team had been trying to supplement their aging core with up-and-coming youngsters. While this isn’t an unheard-of idea, it clearly wasn’t working as intended. The drop-off in play from the team’s veterans was palpable, and this made it exponentially more difficult for the prospects to integrate successfully.

After becoming vocal about the rebuild, the expectation was that some veterans (Josh Manson, Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg) would be moved in exchange for draft capital or young, unproven players. Much like the Ottawa Senators or Arizona Coyotes have done in recent years, bottoming out to obtain pieces for the future seemed to be a smart way to move forward.

In terms of the team’s performance this year, an even further plunge in the standings was expected due to the subtraction of key leaders and veterans. To an extent, this belief was becoming reality even as recent as the beginning of this season when the Ducks started off 2-4-3. Fans were becoming restless, nothing seemed to have changed, and the team seemed to lack direction. But then, one glorious early-November morning, everything changed.

Ed: When the now-infamous letter was released to fans of the New York Rangers on February 8th, 2018, it signaled the end of an era. A team built around stars such as Henrik Lundqvist, Ryan McDonagh, Rick Nash, Mats Zuccarello, was now set to exit its “window” to win a championship. McDonagh and Nash were dealt at the 2018 deadline (more on that later), Zuccarello was dealt in 2019, and Lundqvist remained a part of the Rangers until his contract was bought out before the start of the 2020 season. Lundqvist ended up signing with the Washington Capitals before his abrupt retirement. Prior to the 2018 season, the Rangers had made the playoffs every year but one since 2006. The playoff success reached new heights in 2014, when the Rangers headed to their first cup final in 20 years, eventually losing to the Los Angeles Kings. 

The rebuild had been coming for some time, but the reality of what was to come is what worried every single Rangers fan out there. Nobody knew what the future would hold, nobody knew when the Rangers would even be close to contention again. But this 2018 deadline was key for so many reasons. For one, the aforementioned Rick Nash trade brought in Ryan Lindgren, who now is one of the Rangers top 2 defenseman alongside Adam Fox (more on that one later, too). That same deal also netted the Rangers a first round pick, 26th overall, in which the Rangers packaged with an additional 2nd round pick to move up 4 spots to select K’Andre Miller, who now is playing 19 minutes a night for the Rangers next to Jacob Trouba. The trade involving McDonagh and J.T. Miller going to Tampa Bay was a little bit less of an impressive return for the Rangers, if only they were able to land Mikhail Sergachev. 

There are four moments before present day that stand out as to how the Rangers could shave off years of this rebuild. April 30th, 2019, the Carolina Hurricanes traded the NHL rights of defenseman Adam Fox to the New York Rangers for what would eventually become two second round picks. Fox is now the defensive anchor for the Rangers, and reigning Norris Trophy winner as the NHL’s top defenseman. 

Perhaps the biggest one, depending how some would view it, occurred on July 1st, 2019, when the Rangers were able to sign Artemi Panarin on a seven year deal as an unrestricted free agent. The prize of the 2019 free agent class, Panarin was offered more money by both the Florida Panthers and New York Islanders. Turns out Panarin really wanted to come to Madison Square Garden, taking less money to come play for the Rangers. 

And now the draft. The 2019 draft lottery saw the Rangers strike gold, as they drew 2nd in what was a two man draft that year. It was Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko, those were the top of the line selections and the Rangers would end up with one of them. The Rangers ended up taking Kakko, who now in his 3rd season has really made some positive strides and is only still 20. 2020 however, Christmas came early for the Rangers as they won the NHL Draft Lottery and selected prodigy Alexis Lafreniere number one overall. 

Performing Above Expectations

Garrett: Bob Murray had a fluctuating tenure with the Ducks, but let’s not give thanks to him for the Ducks’ recent turnaround. Murray resigned from the team after an internal investigation revealed his tendency to verbally abuse players and staff. In fact, the change in guard might’ve been just what the Ducks needed as they would continue to string together wins after Murray’s “mutual” decision to leave.

To nearly everybody’s surprise, the Ducks currently sit second in their division. Picked to be a lottery team prior to this season’s start, they seem to have accidentally enacted the strategy that had failed them over the past three seasons. While I do think that Murray’s dismissal plays a role in the Ducks’ new and improved mindset, there is more at play here. The Ducks’ rise might actually be… sustainable?

Take your pick as to why. Go up and down the lineup and you would be hard-pressed not to find a player outperforming their play from recent seasons. In particular, the emergence of Troy Terry has been a pleasant surprise as he has ascended to a bona fide top-line winger. This, combined with the budding on-ice chemistry between Sonny Milano and Calder-hopeful Trevor Zegras has the Ducks reaching new heights. The progression and the attitudes of the younger players on the squad has sparked the veterans to try to match their pace.

The defensive core has also improved ten-fold. The D-core is top-three in the NHL in goals scored by defenseman, and their overall play in their own end has shown progression as well. This development has allowed John Gibson to look more like the superstar that he had shown flashes of throughout their basement-dwelling years.

The most crucial on-ice improvement from the Ducks this year has been their special teams. As it stands today, their power-play and penalty-kill percentage both sit top-five in the league. This is a drastic turnaround from last year when they had the worst power-play percentage in the history of the NHL and their penalty kill was merely average.

With a marketable young star like Zegras at the helm for years to come, and the rest of the youngsters further progressing with every year, the future is bright. The veterans on the team have turned back the clock, and this formula has the Ducks in the thick of the playoff race.

Ed: This year, change was abound for the Rangers. After last season, the Rangers had fired nearly every one of their top hockey guys, including John Davidson, Jeff Gorton, and previous head coach David Quinn. To replace them, in came Chris Drury (former Assistant General Manager) and Gerard Gallant as the Rangers new head coach. Gallant has a sterling reputation across the league, known for being a real players coach. He will do many things, including blatantly lie to the media, yet where he excels is his individual man management. Gallant will never come out and publicly rip a player, everything of that nature is always done behind closed doors and his players absolutely love that about him. 

Many Rangers fans wanted to see growth from this young team entering the 2021-2022 season. With COVID-19 fears abound, nobody really knew how this season was going to go. It really was a crapshoot. If the Rangers were successful, great. If they weren’t successful, that is okay too. It was supposed to be a wing year for the Rangers, until it wasn’t. The Rangers season really started at game 14. This is a huge turning point in my own estimation for this Rangers team. Sitting at 7-3-3, the Rangers were not necessarily playing great hockey but it was effective. The team at game 14 were coming off of a victory against a Florida Panthers team that hadn’t lost yet in the season, and while they beat the Panthers, the Panthers absolutely skated around the Rangers in that game. It is one of those where anyone who watched would ask themselves, “how did the Rangers win that game?”. After the Panthers win, the Rangers would end up going on a 4 game winning streak. The team lost to Toronto in overtime, killing the losing streak but keeping the points streak alive. From November 8th to December 7th, the Rangers took points in 12 straight games. Now, the Rangers are third in the NHL in points, trailing only the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Florida Panthers. 

What has specifically changed with the Rangers that allowed them to arrive on the scene like this? Well, it is an entire change in organizational philosophy. Under David Quinn, the bottom six forwards were built around smaller guys that could forecheck, skate well, and grind out shifts. Yet the biggest complaint was these smaller guys couldn’t possibly be the guys responsible for being tone setters for this Rangers team. So with the new administration, Gerard Gallant had one ask from new GM Chris Drury. Get Ryan Reaves. Reaves played under Gallant in Las Vegas, and was a players’ favorite in the dressing room. Gallant brought in Reaves to serve as a leader for this Rangers team, and while he doesn’t fill the stat sheet, his presence goes much, much deeper than that. Drury also signed Barclay Goodrow to a six year deal from Tampa Bay, a move that raised some eyebrows. Yet Goodrow is the kind of guy that will play his role, no matter where it is, and do a job every single night. That is what is needed on potential Stanley Cup teams. The Rangers also took chances on younger players with potential and grit, bringing in Sammy Blais from St. Louis, and Dryden Hunt from Arizona. 

The thing that really has put the Rangers over the top has been the play of their stars. The Rangers are a team of two cores, one full of veteran players that have been around the block i.e. Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibenajad, Ryan Strome. Then, the Rangers have a core centered around their younger talent, i.e. Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren, Igor Shesterkin, Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafreniere. Panarin has been his same steady self, with 36 points in 31 games so far this year. Adam Fox is putting together a campaign that could see him be the first repeat winner since Nicklas Lidstrom won three in a row from 2005-2008. Fox is second in points recorded by a defenseman, and leads the league in assists by a defenseman with 30. Igor Shesterkin has been the go-to man for the Rangers, recording a 2.09 Goals Against Average (GAA) this year and a .936 Save Percentage. If the Rangers are headed for the top this year Shesterkin is going to be the reason they get there, that is just how good he has been. 

Updated Expectations

Garrett: While the Ducks have shown major improvements, they aren’t yet being pegged as Stanley Cup contenders. At this point, they lack the overall star power and depth needed to make a legitimate run. However, expectations have risen in Orange County.

An enviable group of prospects shows light at the end of the tunnel. It isn’t unfathomable to consider this team legitimate contenders a few years down the road – in the more foreseeable future than previously anticipated.

While there is abundantly more hope among the Ducks’ faithful than mere months ago, these thoughts must still be harbored slightly. In a division featuring two perennial MVP contenders in Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, in addition to the eternally competitive Vegas Golden Knights, the Ducks’ path forward is blocked on many fronts. Accounting for the juggernaut Colorado Avalanche, St. Louis Blues, and Minnesota Wild from the Central Division, and it becomes that much more difficult to go on a deep playoff run.

Still, this team’s progression, along with my counterpart Ed’s example, goes to show that we can reasonably expect the unexpected. Embracing a rebuild in the NHL can go one of two ways, and in the case of the Ducks, their group is playing with a chip on their shoulder. Look for the Ducks to continue to make waves this year, and maybe sneak into the playoffs. Come 2023-24, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

Ed: The Rangers’ time to send all of the chips in is right now. It is all about dollars and cents for the Rangers. Next year, the Rangers are going to have next to no money to spend. They will be pressed against the $81,500,000 salary cap ceiling, and the Rangers have decisions to make before next season even begins. Ryan Strome is scheduled to be an UFA, and he has been the Rangers most consistent center this season. Strome has become a player that is, for lack of a better word, irreplaceable for this Rangers team. Kaapo Kakko is a RFA, Sammy Blais is a RFA, Julien Gauthier is a RFA, Kevin Rooney an UFA, Alexander Georgiev a RFA, all players that the Rangers view very highly and want to try and keep. 

This is the year for the Rangers to go for it. Now the question is, who exactly do the Rangers go out and target? The Rangers have roughly $8 million to play with at this year’s trade deadline on March 21st, 2022. According to sources close to the team, the Rangers have checked in on Golden Knights winger Reilly Smith, a Gallant favorite during his time in Las Vegas, Tomáš Hertl of the San Jose Sharks, Joe Pavelski of the Dallas Stars, and Phil Kessel of the Arizona Coyotes. There have been rumblings from these sources that say the Rangers could even make an offer for Claude Giroux, captain of the rival Philadelphia Flyers. It would be a really tough sell for the Flyers to trade Giroux to the Rangers, unless the haul was impressive. The common theme with all of these players linked to the Rangers, all pending UFAs. These are all rentals that do not carry any salary commitments for next year. They are, in essence, guys to help put this team over the top and into contender status this year. 

What are the realistic expectations for this team? Nobody really knows. I recently wrote a piece about if the Rangers are actually good, and I believe that they are good. The question now is, can they continue to be good and become great. I feel they can, but they have to make improvements on this roster. The RW spot has got to be improved, and from my sources Chris Drury and Gerard Gallant know this. Drury is looking to get something done soon, but when soon is, remains a mystery. This Rangers team can win the Cup this year if the right moves are made as the deadline approaches. Alongside my colleague Garrett Brown’s Ducks, the New York Rangers should be perennial contenders for years to come.