Anthony Mantha has been a big topic of discussion amongst Red Wings fans this season. Some want him traded, others think he’s the team’s next star, and many believe he hasn’t been the same Mantha this year. The latter statement certainly seems to be true. Through 17 games this season, Mantha has just 9 points, a big difference from his hot start last year. The Quebec native was also the victim of a third period benching against Tampa Bay, then a healthy scratch the next game versus Florida. While Mantha seems to have picked it up in the games since being scratched, many Detroit fans are left wondering: what type of player is Anthony Mantha?
Through 17 games last season, Mantha recorded 9 goals and 6 assists, good for 0.88 points per game. Through 17 games this season, Mantha has 5 goals and 4 assists, good for 0.53 points per game. Although he is averaging a minute less in ice time per game (18:54 to 17:54), his 5v5 per 60 rates have still taken a dip. His goals per 60 through 17 games has gone from 1.46 in 2019-20 to 0.77 in 2020-21. His assists per 60 have also seen a massive drop, down from 1.31 in 2019-20 to 0.77 in 2020-21. He’s also averaging just 1.53 points per 60, which would be the lowest of his career. To understand Mantha’s struggles this season, we can delve into multiple aspects of the game.
Shooting and Shot Selection
Part of the reason may lie in the fact that Mantha has taken a significantly less amount of shots this year compared to last. Through 17 games last season, he took 65 shots or 3.82 per game. This season, that number is down to 44 shots, or 2.59 shots per game, more than a full shot lower per game. According to Natural Stat Trick, his 5v5 Individual High Danger Corsi For through 17 games (that is, the amount of total shot attempts in the slot) has gone down from 15 to 9.
Interestingly enough, although Mantha’s shot totals have decreased, he’s still getting relatively the same amount of quality chances. In terms of quality shots taken, when taking into consideration his 5v5 High Danger Corsi For, if last season he had 15 High Danger chances from 65 shots, that means 23.08% of his shots were High Danger. During this season, Mantha has had 9 High Danger chances off of 44 shots, or 20.45%. When taking into consideration “scoring chances” (as defined by War On Ice), we can see that through 17 games last season, Mantha had 38 scoring chances, which, out of 65 shots, is 58.46%. This season, Mantha has 28 scoring chances out of 44 shots, or 63.63%, a significantly higher number.
Thus, we can determine that when it comes to Mantha’s shooting, he’s getting quality chances but not shooting enough. Additionally, he’s also not hitting the net enough when it comes to his shots. Just 52.4% of his shots are going on net, which ranks 18th on the Red Wings. Last season saw him hit the net 58.3% of the time. Finally, while his shooting percentage is lower through 17 games than last season (13.8% to 11.4%), it’s not that far off from his career shooting percentage (12.4%), so Mantha’s biggest problem lies in lack of shots.
Linemates
Mantha has also seen a shift in his linemates this season. Through 17 games last season, Mantha played 56.42% of his 5v5 minutes with Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi. The second most minutes with Mantha belonged to Andreas Athanasiou and Valtteri Filppula, at 22.11%. Finally, the third most, at just 5.56% of 5v5 minutes, was with Darren Helm and Dylan Larkin.
This season, Mantha has still seen the most minutes with Larkin and Bertuzzi. However, that number has dropped to 20.59% of the time. The second most is with Robby Fabbri and Bobby Ryan, at 13.72%, followed by Vladislav Namestnikov and Taro Hirose at 10.97%. This season, Mantha has played more than 20 5v5 minutes with 6 different players, including three different centers. It also doesn’t help that Tyler Bertuzzi has been out with an upper-body injury since February 3rd.
When taking into consideration just the centers Mantha has played with, he, as stated, has spent significant time with three different centermen this season. 39.66% of his 5v5 minutes have been spent with Larkin, 34.39% with Namestnikov, and 17.65% with Fabbri. Last season, through 17 games, 67.28% of his minutes were with Dylan Larkin. The second most was Valtteri Filppula, at just 22.69%.
Mantha’s lack of shots may correlate to the linemates he has this season versus last. When looking at Detroit’s primary assists per 60 last year, Larkin’s 0.63 ranked second on the team, while Bertuzzi’s 0.62 ranked third (both behind Mantha, who led with 1.22 per 60). This year, Mantha’s most common linemates, Larkin, Ryan, and Namestinkov, rank 10th (0.42), 7th (0.58), and 15th (0.28) in primary assists.
Taking a look at Mantha’s most common lines this season, the Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha line was the best at getting shots on net, with 33.44 shots per 60. Mantha’s next most common line, Mantha-Fabbri-Ryan, sits at 21.58 shots per 60. The third most common line, Mantha-Namestnkiov-Hirose, was close behind the Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha line with 32.56 shots per 60. Hirose is known as a playmaker and is currently fourth on Detroit with 0.94 primary assists per 60 and second on the team with 1.89 total assists per 60. Hirose, however, was recently sent down to the AHL.
Overall, Mantha’s lack of consistent linemates, coupled with some linemate’s struggle to get shots on net and find passing lanes, seem to correlate with Mantha’s own struggles to consistently shoot the puck.
Team Influence
Finally, we can also take the team performance as a whole into consideration. Overall, Detroit is scoring at the same rate through 17 games (2.06). Their power play, which also struggled last year, is even worse this year, though, down from 12.73% to 7.14%. Interestingly enough, through these first 17 games, the Red Wings have gotten virtually the same amount of power play opportunities (55 last season to 53 this season). Through 17 games last year, Mantha had four power play goals, whereas this year, he has just one.
Finally, Detroit’s number of shots per game is also down, from 30.58 last year to 27.17 this year. Using Mantha’s shots per game, we can see that last year, he averaged 12.49% of the team’s shots; this year, that number is down to 9.53%, so while the Red Wings’ overall decline in shots remains a problem, Mantha’s still does as well.
Overall
So, using all these numbers, we can determine that Mantha’s main problem lies in a lack of shots this season, and the Red Wings seem to struggle to find linemates that can help Mantha get the puck on the net. Additionally, Detroit’s power play struggles are also affecting Mantha’s scoring capabilities, as Mantha was the Red Wings’ leading power play goal scorer last year.
If Detroit wants to get Mantha back to form, reuniting the Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha line seems to be the best choice. While Bertuzzi is injured, coach Jeff Blashill might think about putting together Mantha, Larkin, and Filip Zadina, who is currently third on the team in primary assists per 60 with 1.2 Given the fact that the Red Wings have better forward depth this year, loading up the top line with Mantha, Larkin, and Bertuzzi/Zadina won’t hurt the overall team scoring as it may have last year. With Larkin also struggling with offensive production, it will certainly help the team’s overall offensive struggles to have last year’s top scorers get back on track and could get Mantha to the elite level many fans think he can play at.
Stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com
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