As the 3 p.m. NHL trade deadline closed, it looked like it would be a disappointing one for the Detroit Red Wings. They had managed to flip defenseman Patrik Nemeth to the Colorado Avalanche for a fourth round pick, and defenseman Jon Merrill to the Montreal Canadiens for a fifth round pick, and 23-year-old minor leaguer Hayden Verbeek, however, it seemed like that would be the extent of Detroit’s trades. Both were solid deals, but their top bargaining chips, center Luke Glendening and goaltender Jonathan Bernier, had remained with the team, and 3 p.m. had come and gone. For a rebuilding organization, it had been a less than ideal day. Then came a 3:30 tweet from NHL Network Analyst Kevin Weekes.
Weekes was reporting that Red Wings forward Anthony Mantha had been traded in exchange for Washington Capitals forwards Jakub Vrana and Richard Panik, plus more that was still unknown. The details came slowly, then finally, the full trade was released:
Washington receives: Anthony Mantha
Detroit receives: Jakub Vrana, Richard Panik, 2021 first round pick, 2022 second round pick
Although Mantha’s name had been mentioned in trade rumors before, the deal still came as somewhat of a surprise to Red Wings fans. Mantha had been mentioned as a key piece of the rebuild, alongside the likes of Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Filip Hronek. Since 2016-17, Mantha’s rookie season, he has been Detroit’s second-leading scorer (behind Dylan Larkin) with 191 points in 292 games. He was also the Red Wings’ leading goal scorer at that time (93 goals) and was only slightly behind Larkin in points per game in those five seasons (0.65 to 0.70). So, why would General Manager Steve Yzerman trade one of Detroit’s top players? Well, looking at the deal, it may have been an offer Yzerman couldn’t refuse.
Point production-wise, Vrana and Mantha are very similar players. Over the past two seasons (2019-2021), Vrana has averaged 0.713 points per game (77 points in 108 games), while Mantha has averaged 0.694 points per game (59 points in 85 games). One of the main differences between the two players is their 5v5 production. Playing in Washington with the likes of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and TJ Oshie, Vrana didn’t receive much power play time (just 1:47 per game the past three seasons). Mantha, over the past three seasons, played almost a minute more on the man advantage per game (2:42).
Over the past three seasons, amongst players who have played at least 2,000 5v5 minutes, Vrana ranks eighteenth in the league in 5v5 points per 60 with 2.49, just below Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, and Elias Petterson. Mantha, on the other hand, sits 118th. This isn’t to say, though, that Vrana is the better player. While Mantha arguably is overall the better forward, Vrana brings value to the Red Wings in his 5v5 scoring and can fill the offensive gap left by Mantha’s trade.
Red Wings Trade Deadline Pickups
In addition to Vrana, Detroit also received forward Richard Panik, a depth player who the Capitals likely included to free up some cap space. While Panik isn’t an earth-shattering player, he’ll bring value to the Red Wings’ bottom six.
What makes the deal even better for the Red Wings is the first and second round picks they were able to pick up. According to a study done by The Athletic, a first rounder between the 20th and 31st pick (where Washington’s pick is likely to be) is, on average, worth 3.37 GSVA over the course of his first seven years (Game Scored Value Added, similar to Baseball’s WAR). While that isn’t the same value as a top-five pick (11.48 GVSA over the first seven seasons), it still brings high potential for a decent NHL player, as players picked in these slots still have a more than 50% probability of playing more than 100 NHL games and a more than 40% chance of playing 200 NHL games. Some of the more recent NHLers selected in these spots who have spent significant time in the league include Shea Theodore (26th overall, 2013), David Pastrnak (25th overall, 2014), Brock Boeser (23rd overall, 2015), and Travis Konecny (24th overall, 2015).
So, in trading Mantha, the Red Wings did lose a top player, who, playing now alongside Nicklas Backstrom and TJ Oshie, has the potential to become a quality, thirty-goal scorer in the league, however, they get back a top-six winger in Jakub Vrana, a solid depth forward in Richard Panik, a valuable first round pick, and a second round pick. With two first round picks and three seconds (from previous trades), the Red Wings could also package some of those and potentially move up in the draft. If not, Detroit has still managed to find high-end prospects with late first and second round picks. Some of those include Joe Veleno (30th overall, 2018), Jonatan Berggren (33rd overall, 2018; seventh in the SHL in points this season), and Albert Johansson (60th overall, 2019).
Finally, by trading Mantha, the Red Wings open up winger spots in their crowded top six. With Filip Zadina, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Robby Fabbri all producing well in the NHL, and top prospects Berggren and Lucas Raymond on the way to the league soon, it seemed almost inevitable that Detroit would trade away one of their top-six wingers. As arguably the most valuable of that group (other than Filip Zadina, who was highly unlikely to be traded), a Mantha trade was able to both clear the path for Berggren and Raymond while also giving the Red Wings the best return possible in a deal. At the end of the day, Steve Yzerman was given an offer he couldn’t refuse, and while it may sting Red Wings fans for now, it might just pay off in the long run.
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