We finally got on the board. Cameron Smith brought home the victory at The Players Championship. Now, we look to the Valspar Championship to make it two in a row. Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor poses some challenges, so once again, consistent players that can avoid bogeys will thrive as the Florida leg of the PGA Tour continues. There is a shorter field this week, so some of the odds may not look as appealing, but there is definitely value to be had at Copperhead.
Collin Morikawa (+1200)
I am back at the well for the player that I believe is the best in the world, or second behind Jon Rahm. He has the third lowest odds in the field behind Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland, whom I believe Morikawa is better than. Good drives and approach shots will be paramount in Palm Harbor with the difficulty of the course, and these are two areas that he thrives in. I said it last week, but as the first major of the year approaches, Morikawa will be looking to heat up. With limited competition, this is a huge opportunity for him to get his 2022 rolling.
Paul Casey (+2200)
This was a very easy pick, and probably my favorite one for this week. Casey has won the Valspar twice in the past, taking it home in back-to-back years in 2018 and 2019. There is a reason that the Englishman is so good at this course, as his consistency really plays well here. With a 3rd place finish at The Players, Casey is clearly in good form. Priced with the likes of Tyrell Hatton and Sam Burns, Casey has a lot of value in Palm Harbor.
The Longshot: Russell Knox (+6000)
This is not that long of a shot compared to my previous plays, but I liked the value on Scotsman too much to ignore him at the Valspar Championship this week. Knox finished sixth this past tournament at Sawgrass. While this might not seem like great odds for a player that has not won since 2016, Copperhead Course is an ideal fit for a player that is the best in the world at greens in regulation. For the +6000 price, Knox is worth a play here.
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