Despite all of the recent COVID issues, college football pushes on to week 13 with a few major matchups set to help determine the early push for playoff places. Below are my thoughts on the best picks for this weekends biggest matchups:
Last Week: 5-0
Liberty simply isn’t getting enough respect in this game. This is a team that went on the road and beat Virginia Tech, went on the road and destroyed Syracuse, and now goes on the road to play another ACC foe with a horrendous defense. NC State gives up a conference worst 457 yards per game while Liberty comes in averaging a staggering 491 yards of offense per game. Quarterback Malik Willis is an absolute superstar, and I can’t see a scenario in which this Wolfpack defense can slow him down. This all sets up quite nicely for the underdogs to win outright in a shootout and move to 3-0 against ACC teams this year. Hugh Freeze is getting a power five job, next season ladies and gentlemen.
The Pick: Liberty ML & Over 67.5
Michigan (-10.5) at Rutgers
Michigan couldn’t possibly lose to Rutgers, right? In a season that has already been a complete trainwreck for the maise and blue, that would truly be a rock bottom scenario. Jim Harbaugh is probably going to be let go after the season, but he will not have a loss to Rutgers on his resume on the way out. Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights playing much better football than they have for the better part of the last decade, but Michigan has too much pride to let themselves drop this one. Regardless of whether Cade McNamara or Joe Milton is in at quarterback, the Wolverines will come out firing and handle Rutgers with ease as they try to get this season back on track.
The Pick: Michigan -10.5
LSU (-2) at Arkansas
Fayetteville plays host to the game with the largest spread differential from one season to the next in college football history. LSU was around 44 point favorites last season in this matchup, and this line actually opened with Arkansas at -3 before being bet down to LSU being a slight favorite. Arkansas got blown out last weekend by Florida, but so has everyone recently, and that should do nothing to discourage how strong of a defense these Razorbacks have had for the bulk of the season. Couple that with true freshman quarterback TJ Finley making his second career start for LSU on the road, and you have a recipe for a rather low scoring game. Arkansas will attempt to put together sustained drives against the porous LSU defense, and I can see them winning this game in a bit of a slog.
The Pick: Arkansas +2 & Under 63.5
Mississippi State at Georgia (-25)
The total points line for this game is understandably incredibly low as Mississippi State’s historically bad offense matches up against Georgia’s own disheveled attack. That would lead one to take the under, right? Not so fast. Georgia is finally starting former five star JT Daniels at quarterback, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken will undoubtedly be looking to open up the offense more in order to prove all the national critics wrong about the current state of Georgia football. Mix in a couple of defensive touchdowns that have been commonplace against this awful Mississippi State passing offense, and I can see this over hitting at such a low number. Look for Georgia to pile it on in this one, even against what has been an above-average Miss State defense.
The Pick: Over 43.5
For more College Football coverage, click here.
