Coming into the 2020 season, regardless of format, the Atlanta Braves were tipped to be one of the contending teams in the National League and potentially World Series challengers. With solid bullpen depth and seemingly several tough lineup decisions for manager Brian Snitker to make, the 60-game sprint with a universal DH would theoretically play right into the team’s hands. So with a third of the season behind us and the Braves sitting second in the NL East with an 11-9 record, can it be considered a decent start for the club?
Well, sort of.
POSITIVES
Offensively, things have generally been impressive from an Atlanta perspective. Their 104 runs scored is good for third in all of baseball, trailing only the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays. Several Braves hitters got off to scorching hot starts, including new addition Marcell Ozuna who departed the Cardinals to sign a one-year, $18 million deal this offseason. Although he has cooled down considerably in his last ten games, his game-tying blast off Mets pitcher Edwin Diaz was an early spark that the team needed in the first series of the campaign.
Shortstop Dansby Swanson has also tailed off a bit at the plate, but his ten-game hitting streak to start the season was a major reason the Braves were 7-3 at that point. On the other hand, 22-year-old star outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr started cold before getting hot in a hurry. His three homer day in the squad’s doubleheader against the Phillies on August 9th solidified that “El Abusador” had his timing back at the dish. Elsewhere in the offense, Tyler Flowers (.375 AVG), Travis d’Arnaud (.350 AVG) and Freddie Freeman (12 RBI) have been solid contributors, with Freeman looking to bounce back from the COVID-19 symptoms he was dealing with just over a month ago.
The starting rotation has been a mess to say the least, but young lefty Max Fried has done his job almost to perfection thus far. Atlanta has won all four of his starts, and his 3-0 record with 1.59 ERA is a testament to how well he has mixed speeds and had hitters completely fooled to this point. With the collapse of the rest of the rotation (more on that in a minute), Max’s performances only become more imperative as he moves forward as the clear #1 guy. The bullpen has also been a net positive, with guys like Mark Melancon (3/3 on save attempts), Shane Greene (0 ER in 7.2 IP), Josh Tomlin (1.59 ERA), Tyler Matzek (1.80 ERA) and AJ Minter (1.17 ERA) looking even better than advertised so far.
NEGATIVES
Unfortunately, we have to start with the devastating achilles injury that ace Mike Soroka suffered in his third start of the season. For Mike, it is especially awful, as the 23-year-old had the chance to spearhead the rotation and make some pivotal starts late in the season with veteran signing Cole Hamels not expected to be back until September at the earliest. For the Braves, it is a more significant blow when put into context with how their other starters have performed in 2020.
Mike Foltynewicz, who started two of the five NLDS games against the Cardinals last fall, was shelled in his first start against the Rays and promptly sent down to the organization’s alternate training site in Gwinnett. With GM Alex Anthopoulos acknowledging the pitcher’s drop in velocity and suggesting he needs a lot of work, the team cannot count on him returning anytime soon. Left-hander Sean Newcomb is another member of the rotation who was optioned to Gwinnett, posting an unsightly 11.20 ERA in 13.2 IP. Newcomb found success in the bullpen last season, but with the needs lying in starting pitching for Atlanta, the coaching staff plans on trying to retool his mechanics before calling him back up.
The Braves have attempted to plug the holes left by Soroka, Foltynewicz and Newcomb’s departures by giving young hurlers Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint an opportunity to take a spot and run with it. Toussaint showed promise in his second start against Toronto, but still holds a 7.27 ERA through 17.1 IP. Wright, meanwhile, is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts.
Injuries have also put a damper on the offensive side, with All-Star second baseman Ozzie Albies dealing with a wrist injury that limited his production early on and eventually landed him on the injured list. Fellow All-Star Ronald Acuña Jr is dealing with a similar wrist issue, which has cost him two games and is expected to cost him at least three more. Besides injuries, the Braves are in need of more production from the bottom half of the lineup. Several starters are hitting at or just below the Mendoza line without contributing enough on the basepaths or in the field, such as Johan Camargo (.212), Ender Inciarte (.182) and Austin Riley (.180).
MOVING FORWARD
The bottom line is that the Braves are still in a position to play in the postseason thanks to MLB’s decision to expand the playoffs to 16 teams, but they are going to improve or find better solutions in several areas if they expect to make any real noise. It is difficult to gauge whether or not teams will be active around the August 31st trade deadline, but Alex Anthopoulos must at least do his due diligence on starting pitching. The rotation would at least be passable if they can get Hamels back healthy and acquire another middle-of-the-rotation type guy like Mike Minor or Lance Lynn from the Texas Rangers. The names of top prospects Ian Anderson and Tucker Davidson have been thrown around quite a bit by Braves fans, but these guys cannot be relied on to contribute down the stretch.
Offensively the Braves need to get their top performers healthy and firing, which shouldn’t be too much of an issue. The aforementioned bottom half will need to do better than they have so far, including Nick Markakis who joined the team late after initially opting out of the season. All things considered, 11-9 is not a bad record with the events that have transpired in the first 20 games. It gives the Braves a platform to build on, and now is the time that they have to start making upward progress.
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