Well, welcome back baseball! After a 99 day lockout, which pitted players versus owners in the fight to sign a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, baseball is back! Cue the music, cue the choirs, let’s all rejoice, Hallelujah Hallelujah. April 7th marks the beginning of a new season of baseball, which in turn sparks brand new storylines, rivalries, and debates. Hooray, just what we all are looking for!
The fresh slate also brings about new rule changes, as per the new CBA. Universal designated hitter has now arrived, fantastic stuff! Seven inning doubleheaders are a thing of the past, fantastic stuff! An extra wild card team with the top two seeds in each league receiving a bye, fantastic stuff!
But who wins what, who shatters the proverbial glass ceiling and achieves baseball immortality in the Year of Our Lord 2022? Well, it is time I have a go. In this column, we will give each division winner, each wild card from each league, and individual player awards such as MVPs, Cy Young winners, Rookie of the Year, all that lovely stuff. We will start with individual player awards, working our way to playoff predictions and eventually, who will win the World Series come October.
Rookie of the Year
American League: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals – One of the most anticipated debuts around Major League Baseball this year will be that of Kansas City Royals phenom Bobby Witt Jr. Already locked into the Royals Opening Day lineup, Witt Jr. has all of the tools to become a superstar at MLB level. He may not be super polished right off the bat (pun totally intended), but he is the league’s best rookie by a sizable amount.
National League: Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs – In a generally weak class of rookies to choose from out of the National League, Suzuki is the leading choice. Suzuki should feature to play everyday for the Cubs, and the former four time all-star out of Japan should be considered the heavy favorite to win the award this year.
Manager of the Year
American League: Charlie Montoyo, Toronto Blue Jays – You will notice a theme as we go further along in this column, and the theme starts here. After recording 91 wins last year in an uber competitive American League East, expect the Blue Jays to take a massive step forward this year which will garner Montoyo the award.
National League: Buck Showalter, New York Mets – It is very simple, if a manager can bring instant success to a huge market they will get attention to win Manager of the Year. Case and point, Buck Showalter. The Mets go into 2022 with enormous expectations, and look for Showalter to prove his worth immediately as the Mets return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Cy Young
American League: José Berríos, Toronto Blue Jays – Cue it up, another member of the Blue Jays winning an award. This time, it is Berrios taking home AL Cy Young. Berríos will lead what will be an absolutely stacked Blue Jays rotation, and will have enough in that Blue Jays lineup to garner him 16-18 wins with 200+ strikeouts. Berríos will have to lower his ERA to be in contention for the award, as a 3.00+ ERA will not get it done. If Berríos can get that ERA down into the 2.70 range with the aforementioned numbers, that could get it done for the Blue Jays to have two pitchers win two Cy Young’s in back-to-back years.
National League: Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers – With Jacob DeGrom on the shelf indefinitely, this is now Buehler’s award to lose. Yes, I know about Max Scherzer, but Buehler will anchor the rotation for the best team in baseball to start the year. If it weren’t for the downright ridiculous year Corbin Burnes had a year ago, Buehler could have won this award in 2021. This is Buehler’s time, and after recording a 16-4 record with a ridiculous 2.41 ERA last year with 200+ strikeouts, this is the man to get the job done this year.
Most Valuable Player
American League: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays – I told you, notice a theme. The Blue Jays do a clean sweep of Manager of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP awards with Guerrero Jr. winning AL MVP. Perhaps one of the most exciting players in baseball, Guerrero Jr. may not be an uber household name like Shohei Ohtani as of yet, but he will be. Many will throw their hat at Ohtani to repeat, but do you know how hard it is to repeat as MVP? The last time it was done was 10 years ago when Miguel Cabrera repeated. It will not happen this year, and Guerrero Jr. will win the AL MVP. Oh, and a bolder prediction for you, Vladito will win the Triple Crown.
National League: Juan Soto, Washington Nationals – I usually reserve this take when doing NFL analysis, but it applies here so I will use it: The man is looking to get paid. What better way to have your current employer in a vice grip by winning MVP when you are extension eligible and entering your third year of arbitration eligibility. The National League is loaded with talent that can take the award, but give me the young phenom to put the weight of the Washington Nationals on his shoulders and win the NL MVP. Oh, and his best competition for the award in Fernando Tatis Jr. is out until at least June.
Now, time for me to bother a lot of fan bases. Let’s get into the division breakdowns, followed up by wild card selections.
AL East
Team Wins Losses
- Toronto Blue Jays 95 67
- Tampa Bay Rays 94 68
- New York Yankees 92 70
- Boston Red Sox 87 75
- Baltimore Orioles 62 100
The Blue Jays are one of my favorite teams in baseball this year, period. This team has absolutely all of the ingredients necessary to make a sustained run at championships over the next few years. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, all are starring in a very talented Blue Jays lineup that can absolutely hit with the best of them. This is the year it all starts to come together for those in the Great White North.
The Rays are always so slept on by analysts and the general public. They have possibly the best manager in baseball in Kevin Cash, who consistently gets the most out of this team. They also are flush with talent, with stars such as Tyler Glasnow, Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco. This team simply screams 90+ wins in what will be such a competitive AL East.
The Yankees truly bewilder. Yes, this team had to improve defensively this offseason and they have with the additions of Ben Rortvedt, Josh Donaldson, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Yet, the Yankees still are razor thin in both starting and relief depth. The Yankees also boast an inconsistent, at best, lineup full of bats that can pop at any time. This team will still win plenty of games, make no mistake about it. Factor in the Yankees having loads of their roster unvaccinated and facing absences when taking on the Blue Jays, and that will hurt this team in the long run as they chase for a division crown.
This Red Sox team is another well-managed, well-drilled, ball club with talent all over the field. Add Trevor Story to a lineup already featuring Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers, complementing a great pitching staff facing questions with the uncertainty over Chris Sale’s future, this Red Sox team can contend for that extra wild card spot in the American League this season.
Sorry Orioles fans, but this will be another year of pain. However, Adley Rutschman’s arrival gives the Orioles some hope that a way back to relevance could be coming sooner rather than later. Now, it is about surrounding their prized prospect with talent.
AL Central
Team Wins Losses
- Chicago White Sox 88 74
- Minnesota Twins 83 81
- Detroit Tigers 76 86
- Cleveland Guardians 75 87
- Kansas City Royals 72 90
An intriguing division with the best of the rest candidates. In Chicago however, this should be a comfortable division win for the White Sox. Keep an eye out for Luis Robert, someone I nearly chose as my winner for AL MVP. This lineup is loaded, the pitching depth is good, the White Sox have what it takes to be a sneaky candidate to win the American League Pennant this year.
After a dismal 2021, expect the Twins to bounce back a bit. Health was a major issue for the Twins a year ago, mainly with star man Byron Buxton (just like it has been for his entire career, to be fair). The additions of Carlos Correa, Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela should help bring some pop to this lineup, especially if Sánchez can return to his peak powers whilst with the Yankees.
While I love what the Tigers have done, I still think they are a year away from being in the running for a wild card spot in the American League. Eduardo Rodriguez could be a really nice compliment to up and coming Casey Mize in the Tigers rotation, and their lineup will be boosted with Javier Báez and Austin Meadows coming to town. Keep an eye out for Spencer Torkelson, the number one overall pick in the 2020 draft, who is expected to make the Tigers 28-man roster out of Spring Training.
The Guardians will undergo a season of change, in ways outside of just a new name. The Guardians finished the year in 2021 with the youngest roster in Major League Baseball, and it looks to be much of the same story in 2022. Cleveland boasts an AL Cy Young candidate to spearhead their rotation in Shane Bieber, and their lineup will have to revolve around the production of José Ramírez.
The growth of Bobby Witt Jr. will be the main selling point for any Royals fan to be hopeful that better days are coming, and they are. Witt Jr. is a potential superstar, and the pain the Royals will go through in the next year or two will be worth it when this player reaches his full potential. He has all the tools any scout, baseball junky, or commentator dreams of. A true gem that will grace a professional field this year.
AL West
Team Wins Losses
- Houston Astros 94 68
- Seattle Mariners 85 77
- Los Angeles Angels 81 81
- Texas Rangers 78 84
- Oakland Athletics 66 96
Say what you want about the Houston Astros, but the one thing that cannot be denied is this is a successful ball club. No matter what asterisk you want to attach to their name, and justifiably so, Dusty Baker has done an unbelievable job thus far in Houston. While the West could become interesting, the Astros simply have the lineup power and pitching dominance over the rest.
After finishing with 90 wins a year ago, the Mariners are sending signals that they might be all in. You don’t trade for Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez if you aren’t at least half going for it, right? And you don’t sign reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a mammoth deal if you aren’t, right? The Mariners do not have the talent to compete with the Astros. They may be a year, maybe two away from that really but in that time what will this roster look like? This is a wild card contender that will have to fend off the non-AL East winners to get to the playoffs. Keep an eye out for star prospect Julio Rodríguez, who will make the Mariners 28-man roster out of camp.
The Angels can win this division. They have the talent to do it, and original projections have them as an 88 win club. However, with adjustments, they settle at 81-81. Why, you may ask? It all comes down to perception. I feel that, for how good this team may be on paper, they cannot put it all together because of the inability of some to stay healthy. Shohei Ohtani is a star, and so is Mike Trout. Could we have seen the best of Trout already after two injury riddled years, it is possible. I have to see it first before I fully buy in.
The Rangers are beginning to build something, with the additions of Corey Seager and Marcus Siemian they have their foundation for the next several years. However, it is now about surrounding their two star men with talent, and the Rangers aren’t there just yet. This is a team on the rise, make no mistake about it, but this isn’t the year.
Oh, poor Oakland. The continued uncertainty surrounding their long term future in Oakland, and now this team is going to be in full rebuild mode. Gone are Matt Chapman, Matt Olsen, and Sean Manaea, with more subtractions likely coming. This will be the start of several painful years for the Athletics.
NL East
Team Wins Losses
- Atlanta Braves 92 70
- New York Mets 86 76
- Philadelphia Phillies 83 79
- Miami Marlins 79 83
- Washington Nationals 71 91
The defending World Series champs will look a bit different in 2022. Franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman has left Atlanta to go to the Dodgers, with Matt Olsen as his replacement. Ronald Acuña Jr. will be back for the Braves around May after seeing his season end a year ago prematurely with a torn ACL. While all the hype is around the New York Mets, the Braves are operating very quietly. 90+ wins should be on the cards for a Braves team that aims to repeat as World Series winners.
The Mets have fully sent it. Steve Cohen and his deep pockets have now pushed the Mets into win-now mode, but have they done enough? Signing Max Scherzer is a coup, and acquiring Chris Bassitt is a shrewd bit of business to aid that rotation. Yet, the Mets will be without Jacob deGrom until at least June, and while their lineup has improved there are still questions about consistency.
With emphasis on proving the rotation in 2021, the Phillies spent the offseason committed to improving their lineup in 2022. The additions of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos will improve this lineup, and they should in turn produce a significant home run and RBI boost. Having one of the best lineups in baseball comes with one of the worst defensive teams in baseball, and that in turn could cost the Phillies some wins and a playoff spot.
The Marlins are edging closer back to relevance, and should have one of the more exciting young rotations in baseball. Now, the Marlins have to focus on getting hitters that can assist this rotation. The offensive output won’t be enough, even with Jesús Aguilar and Jorge Soler, for the Marlins to truly compete. This team is absolutely headed in the right direction, spearheaded by their young rotation.
Juan Soto can’t fill one of the spots in the rotation. Soto can’t hit in multiple spots in the lineup either. One of baseball’s best players, and perhaps best hitter of a baseball in the league as well, will fall victim to his own team’s shortcomings. The question the Nationals will have to face is can they, or will they, give Soto the hefty pay day he deserves. Soto has two more seasons as arbitration eligible, before hitting free agency as a 26 year old in 2025.
NL Central
Team Wins Losses
- Milwaukee Brewers 86 76
- St. Louis Cardinals 85 77
- Cincinnati Reds 74 88
- Chicago Cubs 74 88
- Pittsburgh Pirates 63 99
The Brewers and Cardinals will slug this out for the Central crown. What puts the Brewers over the top is their rotation. Having two Cy Young candidates in Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff at the top, coupled by an elite third starter in Freddy Peralta, and rookie of the year candidate Aaron Ashby. Add in a strong bullpen featuring Devin Williams and Josh Hader, along with a great lineup, the Brewers should squeak out a Central crown.
Much of the Cardinals success hinges on their rotation. While the Brewers are loaded there, the Cardinals do face some questions. The uncertain health status of Jack Flaherty absolutely is alarming, and the Cards did sign Steven Matz to give the rotation some depth. The Cards are a strong hitting, elite defending, bullpen loaded team. However, St. Louis needs to get something out of their rotation with, and without, Flaherty.
The Reds are showing signs they are starting to tear it down, thus taking them firmly out of the running for the playoffs this year. Joey Votto has been swinging a decent bat in spring ball, and will need to be the main focal point for this offense. How much though can the Reds really throw onto the shoulders of a 38 year old?
The Cubs will be competitive, but even with the signing of Seiya Suzuki it will not be enough to contend with the Brewers or the Cardinals. The Cubs’ tear down could continue at the deadline if the team is out of contention. The Cubs’ record could take a bit of a hit with the influx of youth possible in August and September.
There is a future for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and right now they are embracing the youth. Pirates fans can’t give up that better days are ahead for this team, especially with the continued evolution of Ke’Bryan Hayes.
NL West
Team Wins Losses
- Los Angeles Dodgers 100 62
- San Francisco Giants 88 74
- San Diego Padres 86 76
- Colorado Rockies 70 92
- Arizona Diamondbacks 66 96
What about the Dodgers is there to not love? The rotation is stacked, the lineup is the modern day version of Murderers Row, the bullpen is loaded. This is as complete of a team as you are going to find in baseball. Cy Young candidates (Walker Buehler and Julio Urías), MVP candidates (Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts), this team has absolutely everything you want. The only real question is who is going to stop them.
The reigning champions of the NL West, the San Francisco Giants must be taken seriously. This is a really, really, good ball club. Perhaps 88 wins could be underselling them a bit, but they will be good enough for October baseball yet again. Keep an eye out for Joey Bart, a potential candidate for NL Rookie of the Year. He should make the catching job his own in due course for the Giants.
With no Fernando Tatís Jr. until at least June, the Padres will have to find answers as to who can replace him. There may be no answer for who can do it alone, but they have the options to make it a group effort to replicate that production. The pitching staff for the Padres has got to improve. The acquisition of Sean Manaea will help in that regard, but the likes of Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and the (hopefully) pending return of Mike Clevinger will have to bear the brunt of the load for the Padres.
The Diamondbacks and Rockies are in very similar situations. Both teams are in rebuilds, and will be near the bottom of this division for most of the season. Both are trying to establish building blocks for their clubs, with Ketel Marte signing an extension in Arizona, and Kris Bryant signing in Colorado. Unfortunately, long years are ahead for both clubs.
Playoff Predictions
- AL Division Winners: Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox
- AL Wild-Cards: Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox
- First Wild-Card: Chicago White Sox over Boston Red Sox
- Second Wild-Card: Tampa Bay Rays over New York Yankees
- First Division Series: Chicago White Sox over Houston Astros
- Second Division Series: Toronto Blue Jays over Tampa Bay Rays
- American League Championship Series: Toronto Blue Jays over Chicago White Sox
- NL Division Winners: Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers
- NL Wild-Cards: San Francisco Giants, New York Mets, San Diego Padres
- First Wild-Card: Milwaukee Brewers over San Diego Padres
- Second Wild-Card: New York Mets over San Francisco Giants
- First Division Series: Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Mets
- Second Division Series: Milwaukee Brewers over Atlanta Braves
- National League Championship Series: Los Angeles Dodgers over Milwaukee Brewers
- World Series: Toronto Blue Jays over Los Angeles Dodgers
