Welcome to Bracketology. Bird’s Bracketology. Throughout the next several weeks here on Talking Points Sports, we will be sending out all of the March Madness content to help you create your brackets. Today, we will be looking at some of the teams you need to be wary of as you fill out your brackets, teams who could be bracket busters.
Now when filling out your brackets, it is important to understand you have got to take some upsets. But what many people do not know when filling out their brackets is where to take these upsets. The most common upset, according to NCAA.com, is a 10 seed over a 7 seed, occurring roughly 39.5% of the time. An 11 seed over a 6 seed is next, occurring at a 37.5% rate, followed by a 12 seed over a 5 seed at 35.4% rate, and followed up lastly by a 13 seed over a 4 seed happening at a 21.5% rate.
While the numbers are important, the teams are just as important to know. While we won’t know who officially seeds where until Sunday, March 13, we do have an idea of who could be playing spoiler in this year’s tournament.
Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Let’s just get this one out of the way, the one that everyone will have earmarked to make a run yet again. Loyola Chicago has played spoiler in the tournament before, with their Cinderella run to the Final Four in 2018, along with knocking out in-state rival and 1 seed Illinois a year ago. Oh, and having Sister Jean isn’t a bad thing either.
The Ramblers are 1st in the Missouri Valley Conference, and are led by their guard duo of Lucas Williamson and Braden Norris. Both average north of 30 minutes a night, and are both shooting over 40% from three point range. Williamson is also a force on the defensive end, leading the Ramblers in rebounds and steals.
The Ramblers register over 73 points per contest, along with the 5th-best effective field goal percentage, the 13th-highest 2-point shooting percentage, and the 10th-best 3-point shooting percentage in the country. Where the Ramblers do struggle, however, is putting teams away. Anything involving the Ramblers will most likely be some sort of sweat come March, but this is a team more than capable of making a deep tournament run.
Davidson Wildcats
The leaders of the Atlantic 10, Davidson keep finding ways to win basketball games at a very impressive clip. Davidson are 22-4 this year, including 12-2 in conference play. If you need a scouting report on just how good Davidson can be, go back and watch Davidson manhandle Saint Louis. Saint Louis are a fantastic offensive team, and Davidson held them to only 58 points on 34% shooting from the floor in their best defensive effort of the season.
Davidson are a fantastic offensive team in their own right, registering roughly 38% from deep this season, good for 16th in the entire country. Davidson also makes 55% of their two point shots, 23rd in the nation, and rank 12th in effective field goal percentage. Davidson have a wide array of options to turn to in big moments, led by guards Foster Loyer and Hyunjung Lee, who are averaging 16.5 and 15.8 points per game respectively to go along with 3.5 and 6.2 assists per contest.
Where Davidson has struggled this year is on the defensive end. The defensive prowess is there with this Wildcat team, look at the Saint Louis game as a great example. Yet despite ranking 216th in adjusted defensive efficiency, Davidson does an outstanding job of limiting opponents opportunities at the charity stripe. The Wildcats only allow 14.7 free throws per contest, and while opponents have registered a 73.8% success rate at the line this season, Davidson is not giving away cheap fouls and free throws that could propel the Wildcats to be a nice sleeper in this year’s tournament.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Perhaps one of my favorite sleepers this year, the Scarlet Knights have all the makings of being a Cinderella team this year. All you have to do is look at their results and you can see why. They have beaten a Purdue team when they were the best team in the land. They have beaten Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois, all teams that we will be seeing in the tournament. Rutgers are a classic example of a great team being lost in a conference (Big 10) where other huge names get more recognition than they do, and I struggle to see why.
The Scarlet Knights are led by forward Ron Harper Jr., who is averaging north of 15 points a game and is shooting 42% from the field this season. Guard Geo Baker and center Clifford Omoruyi have also chipped in this year, with Omoruyi leading the Scarlet Knights in field goal percentage, blocks, and rebounds. Rutgers averages 68.6 points per game, and concedes 65.3 points per contest.
So why are the Scarlet Knights appealing? Defensively, they are 3rd in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency, and seem to really amp up the pressure on their opponents in big spots. This is a team that was on the tournament bubble before rattling off their wins against the Big 10 elite. The emergence of guard Paul Mulcahy has opened up a whole new dimension for this offense, as he has averaged 15 points per contest and is shooting almost 40% from deep during this run. You want to have momentum heading into the conference tournaments and then the NCAA tournament, and Rutgers has that right now.
Murray State Racers
Another former Cinderella story in the days of Ja Morant, the Racers could be primed for another deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Murray State has a 26-2 record on the year, and are led by forward KJ Williams who is averaging 17.6 points per contest this year. Williams is also shooting 54.3% from the field, to go along with the contributions of guard Justice Hill.
The question that arises with Murray State is what happens if they don’t win the Ohio Valley? Well, Murray State would then be in the running for an at-large bid, and their credentials are deserving of one. Murray State has to contend with both Belmont and Morehead State in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament, two very good teams in their own right.
Where do Murray State make their living, well it is through their scoring. The Racers log 79.8 points per game, good for 22nd in the entire country, and are also a surprisingly solid rebounding team as well coming down with 39 boards a night, good for top 50 in the country. What gets teams far in March is their ability to score and score at will, and that is what the Racers do. They have the pure ability to blow games open, and that is a great thing to have heading into the NCAA tournament.
Vermont Catamounts
The Catamounts, at 22-5, sit atop the America East with a 14-1 conference record. They are the best team in the conference and should have no problems obtaining an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Vermont ranks inside the top 100 in the nation in team scoring, and are an efficient defensive team allowing 62.2 points against. Forward Ryan Davis has been the go-to man for the Catamounts, averaging over 17 points a game and shooting 58% from the field.
Vermont is dependent on scoring. The Catamounts have only lost once this year in games where they have scored more than 70 points, that loss coming against Hartford in conference play. In the rest of their losses outside of conference play, Vermont scored 57, 61, and 58 points. Their draw in round 1 will be key to assessing Vermont’s status, but at the rate in which they score, they have to be given serious consideration to make waves in the tournament.
