One thing the Marlins have gotten praise for in recent years, unanimously across major baseball platforms, is their controllable young pitching. And rightfully so. They have seven or so quality starting arms – either in the rotation currently, or on the brink of cracking it – all being 26 or younger. A second constant across major baseball platforms is the notion of their lack of offensive prowess. Miami in recent memory has given these platforms no reason to believe otherwise. In 2021, they finished 3rd-worst in the league in home runs, 2nd-worst in total runs, as a team slashed an abysmal .233/.298/.372, and finished just .001 ahead of the Pirates for the worst OPS in baseball. They have failed to finish in the top 20 in any of those categories since Giancarlo Stanton threw the whole squad on his back for his ridiculous 59-homer, MVP season in 2017.
However, this offseason has been quite promising for Marlins faithful, as it’s clear from the front office’s moves that they’re ready to renovate this destruction. The thing is, is that these major platforms (*cough* MLB.com) are for some reason not ready to admit that this reconstructed Marlins offense is for real. Okay, maybe not a top 10 for real, but there’s reason to believe they can put up legitimate numbers this upcoming season. More specifically, big home run numbers. From up-and-coming youngsters to recent free agent additions, I think the fish can have five potential 20 home run producers.
Starting from the least likely candidate and working towards the most likely…
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- 16 projected HR by Baseball Reference
The case for 20:
Jazz is electric. There’s never a shortage of excitement as soon as the 24-year-old is anywhere near the vicinity of a baseball field. The Bahamian was scorching hot out of the gate last season, hitting an insane .325/.394/.602 through 42 games, until a slew of injuries came his way and slowed that progress, dropping his BA to sub-.250 by season’s end. Though far between, Jazz’s homers were no fluke. 11 of his 17 bombs were no-doubters according to statcast (see his second deck shot off Jacob Degrom below). If he can just cut down on his high K-rate (28.6%) and be a little more selective at the dish he could enjoy a spike in his home run total.
Jazz Chisholm’s 402-foot home run | 04/10/2021 | MLB.com
Jesus Aguilar
- 19 Projected HR by Baseball Reference
The case for 20:
The reason for having Ags as the second-least-likely to reach 20 home runs is due to some uncertainty regarding his playing time. Although the MLB famously universalized the DH, Aguilar is still likely to see a possible platoon at first base with Garrett Cooper (who by the way, rakes too… when he’s not injured) and youngblood, Lewin Diaz. He may end the season with only 130 games played. On the flip side, now being protected by reinforcements throughout the lineup, the 32-year-old should be able to improve on his 22 bombs and 92 RBIs. If he can hit anything like he did with runners in scoring position last year, .328 (41/125), in this coming year, he should be able to crack the 20 dinger mark once again.
Jesus Sanchez
- 14 projected HR by Baseball Reference
The case for 20:
It seems that BR is inclined to say that Sanchez will replicate his home run total from a year ago. Which would kinda make sense, right? Well, Sanchez played in just 64 games last year! Yeah, now stretch that over 162 games and you have an estimated 35 homers. Okay fine, let’s say that pitchers make their corresponding adjustments and he doesn’t reach that mark. But 14? C’mon Baseball Reference, give this man his respect! I mean, the dude hit a ball 508 feet in AAA last year (see below). One thing’s for sure: he’s got big-time pop. Expect to see 20+ longballs by season’s end for the Marlins second-year outfielder.
Avisail Garcia
- 20 projected HR by Baseball Reference
The case for 20:
Garcia is an oft-overlooked player it seems. Since the Venezuela native was an all-star in 2017, he’s posted above-average numbers at the plate. He hit .278 over that stretch and didn’t record fewer than 18 homers in each of the full seasons, including 29 this past season in Milwaukee. He’ll get a chance as the everyday right-fielder in Loan Depot Park this coming season, where he’ll likely be a regular among the middle third of the order.
Jorge Soler
- 27 projected HR by Baseball Reference
The case for 20:
The man’s nickname speaks for himself: Soler power. Or he could just show you his World Series MVP trophy. Either way, Soler ended last season on an absolute tear. He hit more homers (14) in his 55 games after getting dealt to Atlanta than he did in 94 games with Kansas City (13). His OPS+ post-trade was a really good 128 (for comparison, Mookie Betts tallied a 128 OPS+ over the course of last season). He then tacked on three more bombs on the game’s biggest stage, none bigger than his series-clinching 3-run missile (like, if you blink you actually will miss it) in game six of the World Series (below). This one’s the easiest to understand and the most likely for obvious reasons. Soler will likely be hitting in the top half of the lineup every night for 150 games. He needs to be minimally better than he was in Kansas City to reach 20, and has a chance at a repeat 2019 season (48 HR) if he plays like he did when he landed in Atlanta last August.
Aside from these five, there are other names in the hunt for double-digit homers year in and year out that fill out the remainder of this roster. Such as Brian Anderson, Garrett Cooper, and fresh face Joey Wendle, just to name a few. Let’s see if this Marlins revamped lineup can make some noise in a crowded NL East.
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